Overpopulation Map

Overpopulation Map

Jasper A.J. Eikelboom

These visualized population overshoot percentages represent how many more people live in an area relative to its sustainable population size. The overshoot values are computed using the ratio of the total ecological footprint and biocapacity per area.

Given that developing countries are likely to increase their ecological footprint per person in the future with increasing welfare, a minimum value for the ecological footprint per person is used in the calculations for all countries and the world as a whole. This minimum value represents the smallest ecological footprint per person that has currently been realized by an highly developed country (HDI > 0.9; UNDP, 2025): 2.989 gha (Netherlands). Therefore, the calculated sustainable population sizes per area can be interpreted as both environmentally as well as socio-economically sustainable.

For population overshoot values after 2024, medium fertility population projections are used (United Nations, 2024). In reality population trends will diverge in the future. Moreover, it is assumed that the total ecological footprint and biocapacity of each country remains the same as it was in 2024 (Lo et al., 2025). In reality these values will change in the future, most noticeably the biocapacity will decrease if the current overexploitation of natural resources continues to take place. This will lower the sustainable population sizes, thereby increasing population overshoot values further.

Note that for all calculations it is assumed that people use the available biocapacity fully. However, wild species also require biologically productive space. When subtracting a portion of biocapacity for wild species, the population overshoot values get even larger.

To target a more sustainable global population size, the best strategy lies not in restrictive demographic policies, but in the empowerment of women. Not only will this indirectly lower fertility rates, but also directly improve equality and overall happiness.

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